Three concepts of uncertainity

Abstract

Abstract. This research article aims to deepen understanding of the uncertainty phenomenon and to develop the corresponding conceptual apparatus. To get this aim, comparative analysis of a row of studies of certainty and uncertainty, known from the history of scientific and philosophical thought, was completed. It was found that the classical-scientific concept of certainty grasps three essential features: 1) everything that really exists – the Universe or any of its parts – is in an actual state at every moment, having a set of properties with precise quantitative characteristics; 2) the primary, universal and only possible are the laws of motion, of being in general, which connect the past, present and future states of the existing in an exclusively necessary way; the conjunction 1) /\ 2) is equivalent to the statement that 3) the fate of the whole Universe, of everything in the Universe, is absolutely certain objectively. If we additionally assume the existence of the Laplace demon with the "intelligence sufficiently vast" to 4) exhaustively and accurately comprehend 1) and 2) and correctly operate with the knowledge gained, then for this superhuman subject the fate of anything will be quite obvious, in particular predictable. Given the explicated content of the classical-scientific concept of certainty, one can conclude that in the human world the content of the corresponding concept of uncertainty in the presence of 1) /\ 2) necessarily includes ¬4), that is, it is a conjunction1) /\ 2)/\ ¬4): let call this “uncertainty₁”.

A century ago, physical science discovered in the Universe a domain of chance, uncertainty, unpredictability, and probability, the existence of which does not depend on the knowledge and intelligence of a real person or even Laplace's demon: this is the "strange" quantum reality and, naturally, everything it significantly affects. The key here is the special quantum-mechanical concept of uncertainty.  It is related to ¬1) directly, but more fully – it grasps in its content the conjunction ¬1) /\ 2) /\ ¬4, where ¬4 acquires an objective ground: let call it “uncertainty₂”. The comprehension of uncertainty developed in newest synergetics includes negation of all the features inherent to classical certainty, including the primacy, universality, and uniqueness of the laws of nature, which absolutize necessity: in the general case, the conjunction ¬1) /\ ¬2) /\ ¬4 comes into effect here. Accordingly, it is reasonable to introduce a third special – synergetic – concept of uncertainty, let call it “uncertainty₃”.

It is argued that the situation of uncertainty, or the "perfect storm", in the contemporary world forms at least partly objectively, and not only due to a situational lack of information, someone's "insufficiently vast" intelligence, or conscious intention. To understand it, the classical-scientific concept of uncertainty₁ is not sufficient; instead, it requires the involvement of contextually interpreted concepts of uncertainty₂ and uncertainty₃. The future is open and subject to only limited prediction, control, or management. For this purpose, it seems appropriate to use tools similar to nonlocal probability distribution functions in synergetics.

Under conditions of instability, the complex global system, its elements and structure, innovations or changes are indeed created by numerous actors of completely different scales, values ​​or interests. Even a spontaneous action of a minor group or an act of one person – a relatively small event, a random fluctuation – can cause some kind of “resonance” and a more or less large-scale bifurcation, a transition to one of many very different “branches” of further existence. Thus, further development of our world will depend not only on the greatest "structuring force" of today – the competition between the USA and China, but also on an effective "at an uncertain time and in an uncertain place" political, economic, military or some other fluctuation. A bifurcation it causes will probably lead to a more or less long-term stabilization of the world system with leadership either by the USA and, in general, the renewed West, or by China, part of the East and the South. However, these are only the clearest "branches" of future development: the emergence of some currently uncertain "black swan" cannot be ruled out.